The Athletic has live coverage of Cowboys vs Commanders in the NFL Thanksgiving game.
The Dallas Cowboys played their worst game of the regular season in Week 18 last season against the Washington Commanders. The offense (182 total yards) stunk, Dallas couldn’t convert on third down (4-of-18) and Dak Prescott was just 14-of-37 for 128 yards.
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The Commanders won 26-6 in Sam Howell’s only start of the season.
You can bet Mike McCarthy has reminded his team about that debacle this week as the teams prepare to square off in the first of two meetings between the NFC East rivals. The Cowboys (7-3) could use another strong showing — they’ve won two in a row — with a rugged five-game stretch ahead. The Commanders (4-7) have lost two in a row.
We asked The Athletic’s Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf about the game and their predictions. Here’s what they said.
1. Is this a trap game for the Cowboys? The Commanders are 4-7 but lost twice to the Philadelphia Eagles: in overtime on the road and by a touchdown at home in a game they led in the fourth quarter.
Machota: I don’t think it will be a trap game, largely because of what happened last season in Week 18. The Cowboys went into FedEx Field as a touchdown favorite over Washington with a chance to win their 13th game of the season. And they responded with their ugliest performance of the year, losing 26-6. The players haven’t forgotten about that. Prescott pointed it out during his postgame news conference Sunday. The other factor is that the Cowboys have played their best at home, winning their last 12 in a row. There’s no reason to think they won’t take care of business again Thursday at AT&T Stadium.
Yousuf: To McCarthy’s credit, he’s built a program that has become a legitimate routine contender when the leaves start to fall. In previous regimes, the Cowboys would be competitive down the stretch, but it was to barely make it into the playoffs. McCarthy has led back-to-back 12-win teams and is headed in that direction again this year. All of that is to say this is a group that should understand the difference between November and December football and September football. The way the Arizona Cardinals game trapped them earlier in the season should not be repeated at this juncture, and there’s no reason to think it will be.
Sam Howell has 3,038 passing yards this season with 18 TD passes and 12 interceptions. (Bob DeChiara / USA Today)2. Howell leads the NFL in passing yards, completions and attempts. How big of a challenge is the Commanders’ passing game to the Cowboys’ secondary?
Machota: Howell made his first career start last season against the Cowboys in Week 18. He outplayed Prescott, completing 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown, one interception and one rushing TD. Dallas’ secondary should be aware that he’s capable of putting up big numbers. But its secondary is also one of the best in the league, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 78.2 passer rating, fifth best in the NFL. The Cowboys’ 11 interceptions are tied for fourth best in the league. No NFC team is allowing fewer passing yards than Dallas at 157 per game.
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Yousuf: I would tweak the premise a bit and bring the focus more to the Cowboys’ pass rush before getting to the secondary. Howell has been sacked 51 times this season. Not only is that the most in the NFL, but second on that list is Zach Wilson with 38. The Cowboys have the sixth-most sacks in the league this year, and Micah Parsons is coming off a career-high 2 1/2 sacks Sunday. The Cowboys’ secondary is supremely talented in its own right. DaRon Bland continues to be one of the biggest stories for this team, and Stephon Gilmore has been solid on the other side as well. When they get the help that Parsons and company provide up front, it’s borderline unfair.
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3. The next stretch of games — Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia, at Buffalo Bills, at Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions — is tough. What’s your biggest concern as the Cowboys near that stretch?
Machota: It’s probably the offensive line. Can that best-five group of Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin and Terence Steele stay healthy? There’s a significant drop-off if any of them are out. And if they are all healthy, can they get the running game going against better opponents? I like the Cowboys’ chances against any of those five if that group up front is healthy and playing well. Realistically, the Cowboys could win three of those five. But they’ll probably need to do better to catch the Eagles in the NFC East standings. Dallas is 11-2 in December since McCarthy was hired.
Yousuf: I’m curious to see how well the Cowboys’ game can travel against tough opponents. Philadelphia and Detroit are two of the top teams in the conference, and those two games are at home. The Cowboys should go toe-to-toe with those teams and have a good chance to win. The question: How will the team fare in frigid temperatures in Buffalo or the following week in tropical Miami against a good Dolphins team? If the Cowboys can play to their home level on the road, it should provide them even more of a cushion for their tough home games and the pursuit of a division championship.
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4. Is there a reason to believe this team has a deeper playoff run than the two that fell short in McCarthy’s past two seasons?
Machota: As of Wednesday, the only reason to believe the playoffs could be different this season is if the Cowboys win the division. They’ve created a legitimate home-field advantage, at the very least, the best since they played at AT&T Stadium. They need at least one home playoff game and probably more. But the way things are trending, that seems unlikely. McCarthy led a wild-card Green Bay Packers team to a 2010 Super Bowl title, so he knows what it takes. It’s just difficult to see the Cowboys winning multiple road games against teams like the Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Lions.
Yousuf: I understand many fans reeling from the letdowns of the past three decades will roll their eyes at the glimmer of hope the Cowboys provide once again, but they are one of the top teams in the NFC. When you put yourself in that conversation, you open up the possibilities of “anything can happen.” The Cowboys might not be as strong on the road, but they showed the ability to play the class of the conference, the Eagles, pretty evenly in Philadelphia. Come playoff time, it’s about one play here or there or one untimely injury. That’s not to predict a deep playoff run right now, but there’s a legitimate chance it could happen. And hey, Jimmy Johnson will be in the Ring of Honor when the playoffs begin …
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Prediction?
Machota: The Cowboys haven’t lost at home since Week 1 of last season when Tom Brady was on the field. Washington has lost seven of its last nine and is allowing a league-worst 28 points per game. It should be a big day for Prescott, as opposing QBs have a 100.7 passer rating against the Commanders while they have allowed 24 touchdown passes. They are the NFL’s worst in both categories. Cowboys 31, Commanders 13.
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Yousuf: The Cowboys’ dominant run at home speaks for itself, and the past two weeks have shown that, despite some sluggish stretches during a game, the Cowboys know how to handle their business against lesser opponents. Cowboys 38, Commanders 17.
(Top photo of CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott: Kara Durrette / Getty Images)
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